I’ve made the observation before that when voting in a college football poll there are three possible sets of qualities to explore and combine to form an educated placement:

  1. The résumé: What has this team done this year?  Who have they defeated?  Who have the lost to?  How have those games come to pass?  And, how do the answers to those questions relate to the answers for other teams.
  2. The momentum: How good do I think this team is right now?  Are they moving up or down in my mind?  Are they getting better or worse?
  3. The head-to-head guess: Would team A beat team B.  Or, as I’ve put it would I prefer my team to play team A or team B?

When I make a prediction for a game base the prediction on some combination of the factors above.  I incorrectly picked Georgia to beat South Carolina because…

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